Tuesday, November 1, 2011

The Electability of Herman Cain


     Ever since his landslide straw poll victory in Florida, Herman Cain has been at the forefront of discussions surrounding the republican nomination for the presidency in 2012.  Gaining 35 % of the straw poll vote, Cain upset favorite Rick Perry, who himself received the next highest percentage of votes at 15 %.  Why is this important?  Straw polls have helped predict the candidate for the Republican party in past years, e.g. Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole, and George H.W. Bush.  While much has changed since September 24th, Cain has become a rock star in political media, for better or for worse.  Even in a more recent October 29th poll in Iowa, a huge momentum state to win for potential nominees, Cain polled at 23 %, barely beating out Mitt Romney by 1 %.  However, his 23 % is up from his 10 % showing at the same poll in June of this year.
                To determine why the man who has made the number 999 famous is rising in polls, I asked Dr. David Karol of the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland College Park. An expert, among other things, on political parties and presidential nominations, Dr. Karol named a few reasons why he believed Cain is an attractive candidate to Republican voters:

     The real question is, assuming Herman Cain secures the nomination, can he beat Barack Obama in the general election.  To determine the answer to this question, I also asked Dr. Karol if he believed Herman Cain gives the Republican Party an advantage in 2012:
 
     The most recent chatter about Herman Cain regards the sexual misconduct scandal surrounding him.  Two women he formerly worked with as head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s, have brought up possible sexual misconduct that Cain committed during that time.  Both women were financially compensated and left the group.  However, he has faced much criticism for lack of a clear message regarding the accusations.  He originally said that he was not aware of financial compensation, and then changed his story to being aware of the compensation, all in the matter of a day.  I asked Dr. Karol if he believes this could derail Cain’s momentum and be something he can bounce back from:

     With the republican primary set to begin in Iowa on January 3rd, 2012, I asked who Dr. Karol believed would be the nominee for the Republican Party next November:

     It will be interesting to see how Cain polls over the next couple weeks surrounding this scandal, how it may affect his primary chances, and ultimately, who will win the first critical states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

For all other audio clips of my interview with Dr. Karol not mentioned in this post , visit http://audioboo.fm/gvptjoe


Special thanks to Dr. Karol for his cooperation and help in the creation of this post.

2 comments:

  1. This is a very interesting post and it seem like you are really interested in government and politics and know what you are talking about. I am not too interested in politics but since this is about the upcoming presidential election, it is good to see who are new candidates are what they are willing to provide as they lead our country. I also thought your audioboos were very informative.

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  2. I also think this article is quite interesting. As someone who does not follow politics on a day to day basis, this article provided me with a lot of information regarding the upcoming election. Nice work on the interview.

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